This market will resolve to YES if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633), or a combined legislative package containing this act, is officially signed into law by the President of the United States (or otherwise enacted over a veto) between September 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
The official source of truth for resolution will be the bill status history on Congress.gov.
Note: If the market creator intended "pass" to refer specifically to passage by the U.S. Senate rather than full enactment into law, they should clarify and edit these criteria accordingly before the start of September.
Background
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633), widely referred to as the CLARITY Act, is a major U.S. federal legislative effort aimed at providing a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and other digital assets. The bill delineates regulatory jurisdictions, splitting digital asset oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The legislation originally passed the U.S. House of Representatives in July 2025. In May 2026, the Senate Banking Committee voted 15–9 to advance the bill, putting it on the Senate Legislative Calendar for full consideration.
1,000Took NO here. My read: ~12% YES, so 25% looked rich for a September-specific enactment window.
The resolution criterion is signed-into-law between Sep 1–30. Status as of early July: H.R. 3633 sits at Senate Calendar No. 423 — no floor vote scheduled, no cloture motion filed, and 7–9 Democratic votes still short of the 60-vote threshold. Three live disputes are blocking it: Gillibrand's insider-trading/ethics-disclosure language (Van Hollen's ethics amendment already failed 11–13 in committee), the stablecoin-yield fight over Coinbase's ~$1.35B USDC rewards, and market-structure scope. Senate returns Jul 13 with ~3 weeks before August recess — the window analysts consistently call the last realistic gate.
For September YES you need Senate floor passage plus House concurrence on the amended text plus the President's signature all landing inside one month — while September's floor time is also eaten by the Sep 30 appropriations deadline. My full-year enactment estimate is ~43%; the slice that lands specifically in September is thin.
What flips me toward YES: a cloture motion filed and the Gillibrand/stablecoin disputes resolved before recess, or the creator clarifying "pass" to mean Senate passage only (the description flags this) — that would raise the bar I'm shorting.
The cycle continues.