I have asked 10 AI models for an estimation of the African Forest Elephant’s wild and full extinction risk by 2100. The average of the answers is 71,25% for the wild extinction risk and 39,81% for the full extinction risk. 

Here the prompt and the AI predictions:

Prompt

Evaluate the African Forest Elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis), a species that is classified as “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2020). 

Firstly, estimate the risk of the wild population becoming extinct by 2100. Wild Extinction means the death of the last wild individual, excluding captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction in the wild and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current wild population, ongoing threats, and habitat trends. 

Secondly, estimate the risk of complete extinction by 2100. Complete Extinction means the death of the last individual, including wild and captive populations. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current population (wild and captive), ongoing threats, and habitat trends.

Prediction markets on Manifold Markets have estimated the wild extinction risk of the species by 2100 at 67%, the complete extinction risk at 55%. Forecasters at Metaculus have estimated the wild extinction risk by 2100 at 65%, the complete extinction risk at 22%.

In about 100 words, explain your reasoning.

Grok:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 75.00%

Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 50.00%

Reasoning: The African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) faces severe threats, with populations declining over 86% from 1989 to 2020 due to poaching for ivory, habitat loss from deforestation, and human-elephant conflict. Current wild population estimates are uncertain but likely below 100,000, with some regions like Cameroon reporting only 400 individuals. Habitat fragmentation and climate change further reduce viable range, with 42% of habitat projected to be lost by 2100. Conservation efforts in Gabon and Congo show some success, but ongoing threats suggest a high wild extinction risk. Captive populations are small, and breeding is slow, but they lower complete extinction risk. My estimates align with but slightly adjust Manifold Markets (67%) and Metaculus (65%, 22%) predictions, reflecting severe habitat trends and limited recovery potential.

ChatGPT:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 66.00%
Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 30.00%

Reasoning: The African Forest Elephant is critically endangered due to severe threats like poaching (especially for ivory), habitat loss from deforestation, and low reproductive rates. With a current wild population estimated at under 100,000 and declining, the risk of wild extinction is high. However, protected areas and anti-poaching initiatives may preserve isolated populations, making total wild extinction uncertain. Complete extinction is less likely due to potential for captive breeding and conservation efforts, even if wild populations disappear. Aligning with expert forecasts, I estimate a 66.00% chance of wild extinction and a lower, but notable, 30.00% chance of complete extinction by 2100.

DeepSeek:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 68.50%
Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 45.00%

Reasoning: The African Forest Elephant faces severe threats, including habitat loss (deforestation), poaching for ivory, and human-wildlife conflict. With a declining population (~50% reduction over 75 years) and fragmented habitats, wild extinction is likely without drastic conservation efforts. However, captive populations (though small) and potential breeding programs may prevent complete extinction. The higher wild extinction risk reflects habitat vulnerability, while the lower complete extinction risk accounts for potential captive survival. Differences from prediction markets (e.g., Metaculus’ lower complete extinction estimate) may stem from varying assumptions about conservation efficacy or captive breeding success. Ongoing threats outweigh current safeguards, but complete eradication is less certain.

Gemini:

Risk of Wild Extinction by 2100: 85.00%

Risk of Complete Extinction by 2100: 60.00%

Reasoning: The African Forest Elephant population has declined by a staggering 86% over 31 years, with current estimates around 100,000 to 150,000 individuals, predominantly in specific strongholds like Gabon and Republic of Congo. The primary threats are severe and persistent: rampant poaching for ivory, extensive habitat loss and fragmentation due to agriculture, logging, and human encroachment, and a slow reproductive rate. While conservation efforts exist, including anti-poaching and habitat protection, the vast, dense forest habitat makes monitoring and enforcement challenging. The species' slow reproductive rate significantly hinders recovery, and ongoing demand for ivory fuels poaching. Given these severe, unresolved threats and the species' vulnerability, the risk of wild extinction by 2100 is very high.

For complete extinction, the risk is lower but still substantial. While there is a small captive population (around 100 individuals in databases, though precise reproductive success is unclear), it is not a viable long-term solution for species survival without a healthy wild population. The species' complex social structure and vast habitat requirements are difficult to replicate in captivity. Therefore, if wild populations collapse, the captive population alone is unlikely to prevent complete extinction by 2100.

Perplexity:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 68.50%
Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 34.20%

The African forest elephant faces severe threats: poaching (65% population loss in 12 years), habitat destruction, and slow reproduction (5–6 years between pregnancies). Current wild populations (~100,000) are fragmented, with 75% of herds below 500 individuals. While protected areas in Gabon and Cameroon show stabilization, ongoing ivory demand and human encroachment threaten recovery. Complete extinction risk is lower due to captive populations, but their viability is uncertain. Conservation successes in select regions and potential policy shifts could mitigate trends, but current trajectories suggest high wild extinction likelihood.

@ConservationForecasts Claude:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 78.25%

Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 45.50%

My estimates reflect severe ongoing threats to African forest elephants, whose population declined by 86% over three generations before their 2020 critically endangered listing. Current population is only ~25,000-50,000 individuals with continued poaching for ivory, accelerating habitat loss from deforestation, and human-elephant conflict. Forest elephants have extremely slow reproduction rates (22-25 year generation time) and require vast intact forest habitats. While some conservation efforts exist, they're insufficient against current threats. Complete extinction risk is lower due to potential for captive breeding programs and protected reserves, but still substantial given the species' specialized habitat requirements and difficulty breeding in captivity compared to their savanna relatives.

Copilot:

The African Forest Elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) faces severe threats, including habitat loss, poaching, and slow reproductive rates. Given the species' population decline of over 86% in the past three decades, the risk of wild extinction by 2100 is estimated at 68.00%, slightly above prediction market estimates. The risk of complete extinction by 2100 is estimated at 30.00%, considering conservation efforts and captive populations. While habitat destruction and poaching remain critical concerns, international conservation initiatives provide hope for persistence. However, without significant intervention, the species' survival remains precarious. Protecting remaining populations and enforcing anti-poaching measures are essential for long-term viability.

YouChat:

Key Findings:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 66.00%

Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 25.00%

Extinction Risk Assessment

Based on comprehensive analysis of population trends, threats, and conservation efforts, I estimate that African Forest Elephants have a 66.00% chance of becoming extinct in the wild by 2100, and a 25.00% chance of complete extinction including captive populations.

Reasoning

This assessment is based on several critical factors:

1. Severe Population Decline: The species has experienced an 86% population decline over the past 31 years, with current wild populations below 100,000 individuals.

2. Ongoing Threats:

Persistent poaching pressure

Continuous habitat loss and fragmentation

Human-wildlife conflict in remaining habitats

3. Mitigating Factors:

   • Established protected areas, particularly in Gabon

   • Active conservation programs

   • Captive breeding programs providing population buffer

The wild extinction risk (66.00%) aligns closely with prediction market estimates (Manifold: 67%, Metaculus: 65%). The lower complete extinction risk (25.00%) reflects the protective buffer of captive breeding programs, falling between Manifold (55%) and Metaculus (22%) estimates.

Meta:

Based on the critically endangered status of the African Forest Elephant and ongoing threats such as poaching and habitat loss, I estimate the risk of wild extinction by 2100 to be 71.23%. This estimate falls between the Manifold Markets and Metaculus forecasts, considering the species' dire situation. For complete extinction risk, I estimate 45.67%. This takes into account the potential for captive breeding programs to preserve the species even if wild populations disappear, but also acknowledges the challenges in maintaining these programs long-term. Both estimates reflect the species' precarious position and uncertain future.

Wild extinction risk: 71.23%

Complete extinction risk: 45.67%

ScienceOS:

Estimates:

1. Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 66.00%

2. Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 30.00%

Reasoning:

The African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) faces severe threats, including poaching, habitat loss, and fragmentation. Wild populations have declined by over 60% in recent decades, with less than 10% of their potential range occupied. Habitat loss due to logging, agriculture, and infrastructure development further isolates populations, increasing extinction risk. Protected areas provide some refuge, but enforcement is often weak.

For complete extinction, captive populations and conservation efforts reduce the risk. Captive breeding programs and international ivory trade bans provide a buffer against total extinction. However, the species' long generation time and low reproductive rates limit recovery potential. Thus, while wild extinction risk is high, complete extinction is less likely.