Will the African Forest Elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) become Extinct by 2100?

Question

The African Forest Elephant is one of the two living species of African Elephant. It is currently listed as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List. For more information about the African Forest Elephant, see:

Wikipedia

IUCN Red List Assessment

This market addresses the question of whether the African Forest Elephant will become extinct by 2100 or earlier. Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual of the species.

The market will resolve YES if and when the African Forest Elephant is officially listed as Extinct by the IUCN, including at any time earlier than 2100.

The market will resolve NO if the IUCN listing in the year 2100 makes it clear that the African Forest Elephant is still extant. This includes any listing as Least Concern, Near Threatened, Vulnerable, Endangered, or Extinct in the Wild. A listing as Critically Endangered qualifies for a NO resolution, but only if it is not accompanied by the subcategory (possibly extinct). A listing as Data Deficient qualifies for a NO resolution if the justification text makes it clear that the African Forest Elephant is still extant.

If the IUCN listing in 2100 leaves doubt about whether the African Forest Elephant is extinct or not, the resolution will be determined based on the best available evidence, following a discussion in the comments. This might include the following cases: a listing as Critically Endangered (possibly extinct), a listing as Data Deficient with a justification text that leaves doubts about its survival, consistent failure of the IUCN to update its assessments, the ceasing of the IUCN's existence.

For comparison, here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ConservationForecasts/will-the-wild-population-of-the-afr-INQyAAqIP0?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 55% chance (11 traders, as of May 20, 2025).