I have asked ChatGPT and Gemini for an assessment of extinction risks. Here the prompt and answers. 

Prompt:

Evaluate the Komodo Dragon (Varanus komodoensis), a species that is classified as “Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2019). 

Firstly, estimate the risk of the wild population becoming extinct by 2100. Wild Extinction means the death of the last wild individual, excluding captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction in the wild and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current wild population, ongoing threats, and habitat trends. 

Secondly, estimate the risk of complete extinction by 2100. Complete Extinction means the death of the last individual, including wild and captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current population (wild and captive), ongoing threats, and habitat trends.

Prediction markets on Manifold Markets have estimated the wild extinction risk of the species by 2100 at 36%, the complete extinction risk at 26%. 

In about 100 words, explain your reasoning.

Answer ChatGPT

Here are my estimates for the population extinction-risks of the Komodo Dragon ( Varanus komodoensis ) by the year 2100:

• Risk of wild extinction (last wild individual dies) by 2100: 28.00%

• Risk of complete extinction (wild + captive gone) by 2100: 15.00%

Reasoning:
There are only roughly ~3,500 individuals in the wild (≈1,400 mature adults) across a handful of Indonesian islands, with populations fragmented and many in small sub-populations. The species is under recognized threats: extreme habitat loss from rising sea-levels and climate change (up to ~30-40 % of habitat in next few decades), prey depletion, illegal trade and small-population vulnerability (inbreeding, stochastic events). On the plus side, the main population inside the protected Komodo National Park appears stable or only slowly declining. Given this mix of serious threats but also conservation success and captive populations (some in zoos, albeit small) the wild extinction risk is significant but not close to inevitable. The captive population offers a buffer for complete extinction, reducing the risk of total loss even further. Hence I place complete extinction risk lower (~15 %) and wild-only risk somewhat higher (~28 %).

Answer Gemini

I estimate the risk of the Komodo Dragon's wild population becoming extinct by 2100 to be 45.00%. The risk of complete extinction is estimated at 30.00%.

Reasoning for Extinction Risk Estimates

My estimates are based on the species' small, highly restricted wild population and the severe, escalating threat of climate change on their already limited habitat.

• Wild Extinction (45.00%): The wild population is estimated to be between 3,000 and 5,000 individuals, largely confined to five small Indonesian islands. Projections suggest climate change (sea-level rise and aridification) could reduce suitable habitat by 30-71% by 2050, potentially leading to local extinction on three of the five islands. Coupled with ongoing threats like habitat fragmentation, human-wildlife conflict, and prey depletion outside protected areas, a cascading failure leading to the death of the last wild individual by 2100 is a high, though not certain, probability. This is higher than the market estimate (36%) due to the severity of the long-term climate projections.

• Complete Extinction (30.00%): This is lower than the wild extinction risk because of the existence of a captive population in zoos and conservation programs worldwide. Although the size is not precisely quantified, captive breeding programs offer a crucial genetic and demographic safeguard. However, if the wild population vanishes, the future of the species rests entirely on managing genetic diversity in captivity and successfully reintroducing them to new or protected habitats, which is a significant, costly, and inherently risky endeavor. The long-term risks of disease, funding cuts, and political instability still prevent the complete extinction probability from being very low. This is slightly higher than the market estimate (26%) as the successful long-term management and reintroduction of a large, apex predator is a daunting, multi-generational challenge.

Too profitable to let go extinct in captivity

It was narrowly spared from extinction in 1990. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Freshman_(1990_film)