Will the Hainan Gibbon (Nomascus hainanus) become extinct in the current century? | Manifold

Will the Hainan Gibbon (Nomascus hainanus) become extinct in the current century?

3

1kṀ912

2099

87%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The Hainan Gibbon, a.k.a. Hainan Black Crested Gibbon, is a species of gibbon native to the island of Hainan, China. Its population has increased from less than 10 in the 1980s to 37 in 2023.

This market will resolve YES if the Hainan Gibbon is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_black_crested_gibbon

IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Critically endangered

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/41643/17969392

Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.

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Extinction Risk

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Good news: population has grown to 42 individuals: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202501/21/WS678ed9d0a310a2ab06ea8282_2.html

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-07-10/Hainan-gibbons-population-grows-to-37-as-China-ramps-up-conservation-1ljVBoyCws8/index.html

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