Will the Blond Titi Monkey (Callicebus barbarabrownae) become extinct by 2100?
Will the Blond Titi Monkey (Callicebus barbarabrownae) become extinct by 2100?
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The Blond Titi Monkey, aka Barbara Brown's Titi Monkey, is a species of titi monkey endemic to northeastern Brazil. It is estimated that less than 250 individuals remain. This market will resolve YES if the Blond Titi Monkey is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.
For more information about the species, see:
For comparison, here the market about the wild extinction risk, excluding captive individuals:
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According to an estimation from 2023 there were 873 individuals in Chapada Diamantina National Park https://www.speciesconservation.org/case-studies-projects/blond-titi-monkey/27289
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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