Markets with too few traders often yield unreliable predictions. On Manifold, many struggle to attract even 5 traders, leading to less accurate outcomes. An incentive could address this issue. Manifold’s data suggests that calibration stabilizes between 10 and 20 traders, beyond which additional traders add little value. The goal, then, is to boost most markets to this range.

I propose adjusting the streak bonus: award it only for trades on markets with fewer than 10 traders. This would encourage participation in underserved markets, benefiting creators and improving prediction quality. Once most markets reach 10 traders, the threshold could shift to 20.

Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves YES if Manifold introduces any mana-based incentive in 2025 to encourage trading on markets with a small number of traders—whether my proposal (streak bonus adjustment) or another approach (e.g., an extra mana bonus). It resolves NO if no such incentive is implemented by December 31, 2025.