I was pretty surprised by the Taylor Swift-Joe Alwyn breakup, as were most people, since their relationship seemed very healthy and stable. However, now that they've broken up, some people are reinterpreting Midnights as a breakup album. I find it somewhat persuasive, but I'd find it more persuasive if they actually used the album to predict the breakup.
Ideally for this market, there'd be a longish reddit comment or article or something dated before the breakup was reported (April 8?) that went against the conventional wisdom and predicted the breakup in a way that's intelligent/clever/implies actual forecasting ability of Taylor Swift and/or celebrity relationships. Her fandom is big enough that this should exist, but I had trouble finding it. Hopefully y'all can satisfy my curiosity!
May resolve to 25%, 50%, or 75% if something is found which only partially meets these criteria, according to my judgement. This is a subjective market.
Deadline is June 11 at 6pm PT, happy searching!
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
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@bingeworthy sorry, but the person reverses their opinion in the replies after someone correctly tells them that folklore is about other people (and the timeline is in fact probably too early?)
maybe this market was harder than I thought - more evidence that the breakup was just hard to predict, I suppose
@bingeworthy I think this person would probably be similarly persuaded - I’m unlikely to resolve this market based on someone misunderstanding folklore I think? I was more expecting things from the Midnights era (late 2022/early 2023) maybe. Although, something before that could count if the person has a genuinely good theory in my opinion
but maybe if people really think this counts?
https://www.reddit.com/r/TaylorSwift/comments/z3rd4x/bigger_than_the_whole_sky_and_joe_alwyn/
Now I will admit when I was listening to the album the first time I had assumed many of the songs would be about Joe. (Y’all can flame me for this but somehow I thought Maroon was about him at first, I know pre 1989 and post lover the best so I’m not very knowledgeable on their relationship lol)
I am not caught up on the Taylor Swift lore but I guess this is a person predicting that one of the songs in "midnights" is about Joe. I don't think that this is a "break-up" prediction though.
@bingeworthy Yeah, not a breakup prediction exactly, and they seem to be hedging a lot (smart given their audience lol), but still in the right direction!
@Conflux Careful though, cause Reddit posts can be edited without it showing. Now it’d be hard to fake because of the comments but it’s still a possibility.