Will the Speaker of the House serve for a full two years?
64%
chance

Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House to be elected [EDIT: Kevin McCarthy] is still in office at the end of their two-year term (January 3, 2025), and NO if they leave office for any reason (being ousted, resigning, dying, etc).

Background: Kevin McCarthy, front-runner to become the next Speaker (PredictIt currently says he has a 68% chance), has just conceded "he would lower the barriers for rank-and-file members to attempt to depose a sitting speaker ... If adopted, the new rule would allow five members of the House majority to force a vote of no-confidence in their leader." (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/01/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote-00076002)

All Speakers since 1940 have served out their full terms, with three exceptions: John Boehner resigned in 2015 after conflicts with the Freedom Caucus, Jim Wright resigned in 1989 after an ethics investigation, and Sam Rayburn died in 1961 at age 79. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_speakers_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives)

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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Conflux avatar
Confluxis predicting NO at 34%

2023 market:

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Rex Salisbury

@ztownsend Sounds like a question for a prediction market? https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-the-speaker-of-the-house-serve