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@Conflux looks like this resolves YES? https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

@SG wait is manifold trying to license this?!??

Nate just noted at Manifest that he’d be reluctant to publish because people complain more about mistakes than they praise accuracy, and the odds will be 60/4 to 50/50 with no new information, so it’s all downside to actually publish.

Not the politics model, but Silver says he is looking for a new home for his sports models.

What happens if Nate Silver is the one to publish his own forecast (eg. he hosts it on a personal website)? I assume that counts as "someone besides FiveThirtyEight), just wanted to verify.

Also, what happens if Nate Silver does not publish a model?

@Gabrielle Self-publishing counts as YES. No model counts as NO.

The biggest contingency for this was that 538 would relicense the model anyway, for continuity. But now that they're hiring Elliott Morris, this seems unlikely. It also seems pretty unlikely to me that he wouldn't publish it at all, I imagine there's a lot of demand for it.

@BoltonBailey he's said he's also been contacted by private gamblers/traders who want to use his model, which would mean he wouldn't make it public.

Nate’s latest substack sounded like he was trying to get this to happen