They were curious about their chances, so I offered to make an anonymous Manifold market about them. They provided this description for context:
Applying for a PhD in pure mathematics, typical admit rate is around 10% with a 60% matriculation rate. I will be graduating from ucla with a bachelors and master's degree in mathematics. 80 percentile gre subject, no gre general
Let's get them a good forecast! If there are any other questions that would help you forecast, feel free to ask in the comments.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน250 | |
| 2 | แน92 | |
| 3 | แน85 | |
| 4 | แน31 | |
| 5 | แน30 |
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@Conflux https://math.mit.edu/~etingof/students.html seems tough, good luck! looking at the "advised jointly" im unsure if the school is where they were from or where their phd was given out, if its the former then it seems tough!!!
@astyerche โ1 paper submitted to an undergrad journal and 1 paper in progress that will be submitted to a proper journal when it's doneโ
@AKpaladin most of the time it's just a few button presses if your advisor publishes it with his account. if you want to do it with your email, it's a little bit more but i dont remember it being much.