Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, has fraudulently declared victory in his election. He and his team say that he got 51.2%, his main opponent Gonzalez got 44.2%, and others got 4.6%. (He really got 30ish, I think.)

The problem: with the vote totals they published, if you give the percentages to more decimal places, you get 51.20000, 44.20000, and 4.60000. In fact, they’re what you’d get if you decided there would be 10058774 total votes, the split would be 51.2 / 44.2 / 4.6, and you rounded to the nearest integer. The chance this happened coincidentally: 1 in 100 million.

Now, perhaps Maduro and CNE don’t care about this anomaly. But there’s one thing they could claim: They started with more plausible vote counts, calculated the percentages, and someone on their team incorrectly multiplied to publish the vote counts again - in other words, this was not fraud, but sloppiness.

Resolves YES if, by end of August, these vote counts are officially retracted and new ones are published (even if Maduro still wins).

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/07/31/suspicious-data-pattern-in-recent-venezuelan-election/

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.