Will Maduro / CNE change their suspicious vote totals to something else by end of August?
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446
Sep 1
33%
chance

Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, has fraudulently declared victory in his election. He and his team say that he got 51.2%, his main opponent Gonzalez got 44.2%, and others got 4.6%. (He really got 30ish, I think.)

The problem: with the vote totals they published, if you give the percentages to more decimal places, you get 51.20000, 44.20000, and 4.60000. In fact, they’re what you’d get if you decided there would be 10058774 total votes, the split would be 51.2 / 44.2 / 4.6, and you rounded to the nearest integer. The chance this happened coincidentally: 1 in 100 million.

Now, perhaps Maduro and CNE don’t care about this anomaly. But there’s one thing they could claim: They started with more plausible vote counts, calculated the percentages, and someone on their team incorrectly multiplied to publish the vote counts again - in other words, this was not fraud, but sloppiness.

Resolves YES if, by end of August, these vote counts are officially retracted and new ones are published (even if Maduro still wins).

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/07/31/suspicious-data-pattern-in-recent-venezuelan-election/

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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They aren't going to change the 80% tally. They will update it with a 100% tally.

Haven't they published totals for 100% of the votes counted? The 51.2000 numbers referred to a count of only 81% of the vote. (Source https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/cn38n9knl3no)

hmm, I’m not sure … I thought they called the election with 81% of the vote, but this count was all the votes?

The source says they called it when it was at 81% (meaning, it wasn't irreversible even according to their phony numbers), and also that it was the weird percentages.

Hmm, trying to decide how to resolve if they publish a new tally for 100% of the vote but still say that this tally was 81% and legitimate. I think that wouldn’t count, because they’re not retracting this tally.

Yeah, I agree that just updating to 100% while still claiming Maduro won shouldn't resolve YES. At one point I think I saw Wikipedia saying the final share Maduro got was 53%, but I don't know where that came from.