Will @levifinkelstein (aka HMYS*) keep their promise to me?
5
118
110
resolved Jun 16
Resolved
YES

*disputed

gonna be pissed if they don't. I should've exercised more critical thinking before agreeing. but, we'll see

expecting levi to buy lots of YES

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO

Curious if anyone can determine the promise before I reveal! It's determinable based on public info

no idea

predicted NO

@jacksonpolack look carefully at our portfolios

you agreed to not sell so as to not alert the other YES holders, and he agreed to compensate you for your losses maybe + a bit more? (probably wrong idk)

predicted NO

@jacksonpolack it’s something far more ordinary

@Conflux He took out a loan to fund his NO-buying.

predicted NO

@xyz Bingo! For 10k, 5% interest for 2 weeks. I approved it hastily because I knew Levi had a lot of mana and was basically unaware of the Is Levi HMYS market, but when I realized he was pouring it all on NO, I became worried about repayal risk if he lost the market.

predicted NO

@Conflux (So "keeping his promise" was repaying the loan.)

sold Ṁ42 of YES

Shouldn't you buy no, to incentivize them to buy YES and keep the promise?

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@xyz I think it’s now very likely that they keep it

this is 5d chess

what was the promise?