Will @levifinkelstein (aka HMYS*) keep their promise to me?
5
110Ṁ7313
resolved Jun 16
Resolved
YES

*disputed

gonna be pissed if they don't. I should've exercised more critical thinking before agreeing. but, we'll see

expecting levi to buy lots of YES

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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predictedNO

Curious if anyone can determine the promise before I reveal! It's determinable based on public info

no idea

predictedNO

@jacksonpolack look carefully at our portfolios

you agreed to not sell so as to not alert the other YES holders, and he agreed to compensate you for your losses maybe + a bit more? (probably wrong idk)

predictedNO

@jacksonpolack it’s something far more ordinary

@Conflux He took out a loan to fund his NO-buying.

predictedNO

@xyz Bingo! For 10k, 5% interest for 2 weeks. I approved it hastily because I knew Levi had a lot of mana and was basically unaware of the Is Levi HMYS market, but when I realized he was pouring it all on NO, I became worried about repayal risk if he lost the market.

predictedNO

@Conflux (So "keeping his promise" was repaying the loan.)

Shouldn't you buy no, to incentivize them to buy YES and keep the promise?

@xyz I think it’s now very likely that they keep it

this is 5d chess

what was the promise?

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