I'm strongly considering writing newsletters for Manifold Politics (either on Above the Fold or on a new politics-specific newsletter), and they've expressed interest! I haven't thought about the idea for that long, though.

Currently the style I'm considering would be somewhere in between old FiveThirtyEight and Base Rate Times — looking at recent politics/election news through popular Manifold markets, contextualized with commentary. I'd also try to spotlight some more "fun"/engaging political markets with more uncertainty, like the veepstakes or that Ron DeSantis top-three market.

I'm not sure how frequent it'd be: maybe weekly? biweekly? when there's sufficient news? I'm worried this election just isn't interesting enough to do a frequent schedule.

I selected February as the timeline for this market because I think if I do this idea, it'll probably happen by then. Note that the South Carolina primary is on the 24th.

See also

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.