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MANIFOLD
Will I name more Proofniks than @enaz by Hillsdale?
10
แน€190แน€574
resolved Jan 19
Resolved
NO

@enaz and I will both list names of current Proof School students while on the train today. Correct spelling and last names will not be required as long as it is unambiguous who the Proofnik is. (If ambiguous, the Proofnik will not be counted.)

Time is up when the doors open at Hillsdale station, which is approximately 27 minutes after we depart. However, a train delay would extend the competition duration. Time may also be up by agreement with arbiter and players 5 minutes after said agreement.

Getting up from seats during the competition is banned (since there are other Proofniks on the train), as is consultation of any outside references.

Resolves YES if I name more Proofniks within the time. Resolves NO if he does. Resolves 50% in a tie.

@Imbens will serve as arbiter in the event of any dispute.

We may leave the market open after the competition to allow additional time to bet. If so, we will not provide information about who won until the market resolves!

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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predictedYES

Congrats to @enaz on his victory! As mentioned below, I lost - contrary to this market's prediction, but in accordance with other Proofniks' bets. Some predicted that it would be a landslide though. We kept track of who we had at Millbrae (which we considered as an endpoint), and it would've been an 88-88 tie if we had stopped then! Contrary to our predictions, the time went by pretty fast.

predictedYES

@Conflux oops the "As mentioned below" doesn't apply

@Conflux Got me good

predictedYES

@RogerYang I'm curious why you were so confident

THE RESULT WAS 100-99

@Conflux OH MY GOD

@Conflux truly riveting