Will I get into a car accident in 2024?

I got my driver’s license a few weeks ago, but still don’t feel I’m that safe a driver. But maybe it’s a good sign that I’m worried, as it indicates I’ll be more attentive…

I’m not planning to drive that much, just when it’s especially logistically convenient.

For this market, any kind of accident would count, including if I'm a passenger. I've never been in a car accident.

This market closes on December 31 at 6:28 PT to make New Year’s Resolutions more fun.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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Where do you drive and roughly how many miles do you expect to drive per month or year?

@voodoo SF Bay Area. It’s hard to say, I’ve been driving only a few miles each of the last few months but that could change.

bought Ṁ10 NO

I suspect that your fear reflects the magnitude×probability, rather than probability alone. That is, it's reasonable to feel nervous, even though accidents are rare, because accidents are bad, and because CONSTANT VIGILANCE reduces the likelihood.

Does it count if you are a passenger or only if you are the driver?

@Eliza I guess it counts if I'm a passenger too. I've never been in a car accident.

@Conflux I hope it doesn't happen

bought Ṁ2 NO

Voting for encouragement

hm I wonder if this increases the odds of a yes resolution on this market