Just curious what people think the odds are at the moment...
Clarification: I'll try to use a common-sense definition of "job/internship." I think if I found myself with an "I work at Manifold!" badge, or going to the office to do some sort of work on a regular basis, that would count. A single freelance gig (like USD funding for a Market Manipulation Podcast episode) probably wouldn't, but a series of freelance payments might - it would depend on the exact situation. If anyone in the comments has an idea for better formal criteria, I'm open to that! (Perhaps I'll also make another, less ambiguous market.)
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ457 | |
| 2 | Ṁ97 | |
| 3 | Ṁ68 | |
| 4 | Ṁ52 | |
| 5 | Ṁ47 |
People are also trading
@ColinC this is funny since I was considering resolving YES (I do sort of consider myself a freelance newsletter writer for Manifold right now; they are paying me). I think I’ll resolve if I do a third newsletter this summer
@lag haha I’m not exactly angling for one right now! maybe if I get rejected from every college
@ian Hmm, I’m not sure. I suppose if I’m on the payroll for Manifold? I haven’t thought through whether this counts.
As I said in the description, I’m not really pitching anything yet, it just occurred to me that this wasn’t the most implausible scenario :)
@ian Maybe my criterion should just be if I get one of those “I work at Manifold!” badges