Will I finish the blogpost/video draft before eating lunch tomorrow?
16
57
310
resolved Jul 29
Resolved
NO

The thing I said I would finish in the embedded market, because shock surprise I'm still not being productive. At this point I've made enough progress that it's a reasonable goal. Probably.

I won't rule out eating lunch at like 3pm in order to win this market, if I get the thing done... I'd love to eat lunch earlier though.

I will not sell YES or bet NO, though I may cancel limit orders, so fill 'em while you can. I will probably provide updates in the comments.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.   

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predicted NO

Glad to be of service, hope to do it again 😁👍

bought Ṁ100 of YES

This market was really good for my productivity again. However, two of my old “friends” made appearances as usual:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scope_creep

y’all better like this blog post/video

(honestly I’m having fun writing it, which is a good sign probably)

predicted YES

@Conflux Anyway, I’m starving lol

predicted YES

um I got distracted and rewrote the blurb at tinyurl.com/confluxblog. that's cool but not really progress

predicted YES

On the one hand, I'm hungry, but on the other hand, I'm making progress.

predicted YES

@Conflux ^ this is my situation again, but with both sides of the equation stronger

predicted YES

I've made some progress and am probably on track to meet the goal, but 86% feels too high