Will I have a solid draft of the blogpost/video I’m working on by end of day?
10
171
150
resolved Jul 24
Resolved
NO

It feels like an extremely ambitious goal given how little progress I've made so far, but my day is free and I'm tired of being unproductive. "Solid" is a bit subjective, but means that it represents a real effort, includes the things I wanted to include, and is something I'd be willing to publish if I had to.

I will not sell YES or buy NO on this market.

I'm not disclosing the exact project I'm working on, so as to enable further speculation on my other market:

(If it's a video, the "draft" refers to my script + visuals, not the recording.)

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.   

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted YES

Welp. Too ambitious a goal to accomplish without being productive earlier in the day.

I was fairly productive for the last two hours! Made a good start on the draft, though not close to done. So in that sense, this market was directionally helpful. I'm glad I lost the mana — maybe this will be the thing to jostle me back into productivity for the rest of the summer?

bought Ṁ36 of YES

Alright, time for a final effort. Could go either way on this one

predicted NO

Best of luck!

predicted YES

update: efforts to write were quite unfruitful, I’m nowhere near “done” at the moment

YES chances are hanging on whether I have a lot of energy after eating dinner. I do not feel confident right now, but this market is very motivational, and I might kinda be speaking from a place of hunger…

predicted YES

status update: was doing other things, gonna start actually trying to write now

@Conflux You can do it!

bought Ṁ0 of YES

If I could, I would definitely bet NO at this price btw