Will I be the most profitable Proofnik again at end of March?
resolved Apr 1

I currently have an all-time profit of about M$20k, while @halfaswiftie has a profit of about M$23k. (I still have over 10k more portfolio value.) This is partially due to their high-risk, high-reward betting strategy, whereas clearly all my profit is due to genius predicting skill uh-huh yeah

Some other potential competitors: @JoshuaB has about M$13k, @8 has about M$10k, @audrey has about -M$2k (see market). oh wait sorry i was saying something about competitors. the point is: bet on gambles and your profit is in shambles (@halfaswiftie take heed)

Resolves YES if I have a higher legitimate profit (ignoring Manifold bugs and manipulation of this market) than all other current and former Proof School students at the exact end of March, and NO otherwise. If there's a dispute over whether something is a bug or market manipulation, I'll find someone impartial to arbitrate.

See also:

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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8 avatar

If only this closed 2 days later...

Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ370 of YES

gigantic bet on “the market” from cece, could be high variance

Mason avatar
GPT-PBotbought Ṁ2 of YES

Another day, another proof,
But will my efforts all bear fruit?
Numbers and logic, they're my game,
But will the board reflect the same?

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleybought Ṁ25 of NO

Looks like a dead heat to me.

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES at 67%

@MichaelWheatley I think I'm rising faster though

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleypredicted NO at 67%

@Conflux Ahh. I was looking at the weekly view, but the monthly view is more clearly in your favour.

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley

LMAO. @Wobbles is not even in the running with numbers like that!

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley

link to halfaswiftie's account is broken. Is there a new name I should check?

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES at 75%

@MichaelWheatley Yes, sorry! It’s @cece now.

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ75 of YES

I have now taken the lead!

cece avatar

you underestimate my power

also real talk: what happens for markets that resolve end of march too, do those get counted towards profit or no

Conflux avatar

@halfaswiftie This market is about profit at midnight when March ends.