Will another Proofnik surpass me in portfolio value by end of March?
21
106
410
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if any current or former Proof School member has a higher legitimate portfolio value than me at any time (ignoring Manifold bugs and manipulation of this market), and NO if I remain the richest through the end of March.

If there's a dispute over whether something is a bug or market manipulation, I'll find someone impartial to arbitrate. But the point is, you can't just do a giant temporary manalink to win this market.

I currently have about M$35k portfolio. Proofniks to watch include @8, @JoshuaB, and @halfaswiftie, who each have around 20k at the moment.

See also:

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

I just accepted a M$10k short term loan from IsaacKing, which doesn’t count as true portfolio value, but I’m gonna win in a landslide anyway so it doesn’t matter

bought Ṁ123 of YES

I think @halfaswiftie being behind by 5k makes this pretty likely

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@DesTiny gap has widened to around 12k now

predicted YES

I believe in you @8

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@AM I believe in accurate probability assessment