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MANIFOLD
Will Chuck Grassley run for reelection in 2028 to a ninth term as US Senator from Iowa?
2
αΉ€100αΉ€40
2028
43%
chance

He would turn 95 that year, and 101 at the end of his hypothetical ninth term. (This would beat the record set for oldest senator (100) set by Strom Thurmond.)

He filed some paperwork to do so already, but it's nonbinding.

Resolves YES if Grassley ends up being on the ballot. Resolves NO if he is not on the ballot for any reason (including not being alive).

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Market context
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