Will Austin and Rachel’s child (Ada When) bet on this market by end of 2030?
Plus
16
Ṁ8432031
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Apparently she’s due in July 2024! (Edit: She was indeed born in July 2024.) So, I asked the natural question…
See also:
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030?
56% chance
Will the odds of this market be below 50% at the end of 2024?
49% chance
Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?
28% chance
Will any market of mine go a year in between bets (by the end of 2024)?
27% chance
Will this market > 50% by the EOY 2024?
49% chance
Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?
71% chance
Will Austin Chen be a millionaire by 2028?
75% chance
Will I be around to resolve this market in December 2027?
73% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
46% chance
Will Someone Join This Market Who Will Live To The Year 2110?
62% chance