Who will serve as a speaker of the House of Representatives before the end of the 122nd Congress?

Question

Background

The Speaker of the House is elected by the House of Representatives and serves as the chamber's presiding officer and leader of the majority party. The 122nd Congress will begin in January 2031 and end in January 2033. Mike Johnson is the current Speaker, having been elected on October 25, 2023, following Kevin McCarthy's removal on October 3, 2023. Prior to McCarthy, Nancy Pelosi served as Speaker during the 117th Congress.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES for any listed individual who serves as Speaker of the House at any point between 1/3/2025 and the end of the 122nd Congress in January 2033. Multiple answers can resolve YES if multiple people serve as Speaker during this period. The market will resolve for each person who:

Is officially elected as Speaker by a majority of the House

Actually serves in the role (being nominated or receiving votes is not sufficient)

Serves before the 123nd Congress convenes

If someone serves as "acting" Speaker or temporary Speaker but is not officially elected to the position, they will not necessarily resolve as YES

Considerations

Speakers can be removed through a motion to vacate, as happened with Kevin McCarthy in 2023

The Speaker does not need to be a current member of Congress, though this has never occurred

The position must be filled - if a Speaker resigns or is removed, the House must elect a new one

Historical precedent suggests multiple Speakers during a single Congress is rare but possible, as demonstrated in the 118th Congress

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Hakeem Jeffries, followed by Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Aug 14, 2026).