Who will win Anna Eshoo’s House seat (CA-16) in 2024?
11
685Ṁ3807resolved Nov 6
100%81%
Sam Liccardo
0.1%
Josh Becker
16%
Evan Low
1.3%
Joe Simitian
0.1%
Rishi Kumar
0.1%
Anna Eshoo
0.3%
Julie Lythcott-Haims
0.5%
Peter Dixon
0.5%Other
The sixteen-term incumbent representative, Anna Eshoo, is reportedly retiring.
California uses an unusual top-two primary system. If a Democrat and a Republican advance to the general, I will resolve early to the Democrat, because the seat is safely Democratic; but I will not resolve early if two Democrats advance. I will also resolve early based on a projection from a major newspaper or Dave Wasserman. In any of these scenarios, if the early resolution is wrong, I will re-resolve later to the correct winner.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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