Who will win Anna Eshoo’s House seat (CA-16) in 2024?
7
126
685
Nov 9
76%
Sam Liccardo
18%
Evan Low
4%
Joe Simitian

The sixteen-term incumbent representative, Anna Eshoo, is reportedly retiring.

California uses an unusual top-two primary system. If a Democrat and a Republican advance to the general, I will resolve early to the Democrat, because the seat is safely Democratic; but I will not resolve early if two Democrats advance. I will also resolve early based on a projection from a major newspaper or Dave Wasserman. In any of these scenarios, if the early resolution is wrong, I will re-resolve later to the correct winner.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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Joe Simitian
bought Ṁ50 Joe Simitian NO
bought Ṁ20 Evan Low YES

Incredibly close (currently 12 votes) between Simitian and Low for second place right now with about 95% reporting.