@traders what do people think about these marginal cases, like Pelosi? I didn’t resolve them because I wasn’t totally sure what should count

I guess it was never public.

Feels weird though, like the spirit of this market (“Will Biden get pressure from top democrats before quitting?”) diverged from the letter.

Yeah, it's a tough call but "come out in support of" would seem to imply an explicitly public declaration. Pelosi didn't "come out" in support of Biden dropping out, she just whispered it loudly enough for the entire country to hear. xD

+1 i know the description was light on details but imo this wasn't a marginal case—if the market is about what people publicly say, pelosi never came out in support of biden dropping out (until he did).

if the market is about guessing what people believe (based on reports of what they're saying in private), then sure it's clear pelosi wanted him out. but reporting was pretty clear that was true for a bunch of other people on this list too. and i don't think that's a natural interpretation of this question ("come out in support" != "tells people in private they are in support")

@Conflux these can resolve!

@Conflux What is your opinion towards Obama right now? (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/18/obama-says-biden-must-consider-viability/) Is this enough? Since it's an edge case, it might be a good example to explain your judgment.

I can’t read the article, but the headline is not enough

https://archive.is/iuCy0

not a public statement but it seems like it may become one or be confirmed if this carries on (if it's true)

Sorry, I can access the article without subscription and assumed it'd be the same for everyone. Thanks @shankypanky 🧡

yeah, agree with stefanie. thank you!

sadly we didn’t have Adam Schiff on our metaphorical bingo card…

@Conflux How does this resolve if he doesn't drop out? N/A ?

Strictly speaking, if he never drops out, than any call for him to do so is "before it happens." So in that case it should resolve YES for every listed person who says he should drop.

Yes, Jonagold is correct.

MrBeast called himself apolitical in a Rolling Stone interview.

Pretty much no one on this list will say a thing

Could you add more pundits, etc? I think important figures like Obama and the potential replacements will stay mum until the moment a decision is made at which point they will all endorse it.

anyone can add answers, be the change you wish to see :)

I don't follow politics closely enough to provide reasonable options.

^This is the kind of thing I was thinking of. Any other prominent pundits out there who haven't already done it already?

hmm, I’m not sure

Does it count if they come out in support after Biden has dropped out?

E.g. I could imagine Kamala not saying anything, but then if Biden drops out and she steps in, it wouldn't be surprising if she said something about how she supported his decision. But that's a bit different in spirit/tone than actually coming out in support of him dropping out before he's done so.

It must be before Biden officially announces that he is dropping out. Sorry that wasn’t clear! I’ll edit the description.