Today, I posted an experimental first edition of Above the Fold: Manifold Politics! As of late, Manifold’s politics arm has been building itself into a premier platform for viewing electoral probabilities. I felt like it would be nice to supplement that with an analysis column. But right now, it’s unclear what the future format or frequency will be.
Please comment with suggestions you have for this newsletter column! If you make any suggestions which are helpful or end up being implemented, I will personally give you at least 100 mana, perhaps beyond 1000 for especially good suggestions.
General policy for my bounty markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my stated criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the bounty market, I may pay out funds according to the bounty market's spirit or not at all.
1,000
3.00I enjoyed the article and it encouraged me to fill out my ballot in the California primary.
Overall, I think the column should be more approachable to new or potential traders, with the goal of attracting a larger audience/more political traders to the site. Concretely I would suggest having an intro that explains what prediction markets are while giving examples of their accuracy. It's fine to go more in depth later in the article, but I would build a strong foundation for any first time readers.
1) Highlight or single out any large shifts in a political market
2) Aggregate news stories and/or (substantive) "top comments" from Manifold
3) Is there any reason why the Election dashboard couldn't incorporate info from other sites, like 538, Economist, DDHQ, RCP?
4) On the map, use the tooltip to show changes in the last 24 hours, week, month, etc.