That's the #1 position in the Republican House caucus. So if the Republicans lose in 2024, will Johnson still be leading them? Reasons for NO could include losing to another candidate, voluntarily stepping down, or other circumstances.

Resolves N/A if Republicans retain the House in 2024. If it's very close, I may delay resolution until a Speaker of the House is elected in January.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.