See: https://nypost.com/2025/02/15/us-news/ashley-st-clair-who-claims-to-have-had-musks-13th-child-reveals-life-of-secrecy/

TL;DR: Conservative influencer Ashley St. Clair claims she and Musk secretly had a son, who is now 5 months old. She gives a whole backstory, starting with Musk DMing her - then him flying her places, buying her an apartment, swearing her to secrecy, etc. Musk has not made any comment on these allegations.

If clear evidence emerges either way, I will resolve immediately. Otherwise, after three months (on May 16), I will resolve to my impression of the consensus probability.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.