Kid Rock is claiming this: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-kid-rock-video-maps-b2355972.html
Market inspired by this Legal Eagle video saying "There is a nonzero chance that one of the people shown this information was Kid Rock."
Resolves when there is conclusive evidence, or in six months (Dec. 13, 2023, 6pm PT) to NO, 25%, 50%, 75%, or YES based on my current belief of the likelihood of this.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
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@FrederickNorris Agreed. The biggest giveaway for me is that Kid Rock thinks it's something cool that he should be proud of. He's just too oblivious of everything to be lying. Like, why make up such a bad thing about Trump if you think that Trump is great?
@Shump Kid Rock would like to believe he say something top secret, but anything that he wouldn't understand (most sophisticated things) would be impressive to him.
@will58c3 I'm trusting the market creator on this one that he's not going to "vibe resolve" this in an unjust fashion. The reality is that this issue has 100% faded, no one cares, there's been no reporting about it, and there's no basis to conclude it happened beyond a vibe.
@FrederickNorris Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. My plan is to consider the issue and resolve based on my assessment of the probability, as I stated in the description
@JosephNoonan I've done zero research apart from what I mentioned in the description. Maybe around 25 or 50?