Background
The "Sky Shield" proposal is a plan to deploy approximately 120 European fighter jets over Ukraine to protect Ukrainian airspace from Russian attacks. This initiative would operate independently of NATO and focus on defending key areas such as Kyiv, three nuclear power plants, Odesa, and Lviv, but would not cover the front lines or eastern regions.
The proposal has gained renewed attention in 2025 after initial discussions in previous years. If implemented, it would represent a significant escalation in Western military support for Ukraine, moving beyond the provision of equipment to direct air defense operations by European forces.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if:
European countries officially announce and begin implementation of the Sky Shield proposal in 2025
European fighter jets begin operating in Ukrainian airspace under this initiative before December 31, 2025
This market will resolve to NO if:
The Sky Shield proposal is not implemented by December 31, 2025
European countries officially reject or indefinitely postpone the proposal
A substantially different air defense initiative replaces the Sky Shield proposal
Considerations
Several factors may influence the outcome:
Political Will: European countries have shown hesitancy due to concerns about escalating the conflict with Russia. Any implementation would require significant political consensus.
Operational Challenges: The plan requires coordination with Ukrainian forces and deployment of additional support aircraft for radar detection, refueling, and electronic warfare.
Russian Response: The potential reaction from Russia represents a major consideration for European decision-makers, as it could lead to further escalation.
Ceasefire Negotiations: Ongoing or new ceasefire discussions could either accelerate the implementation of Sky Shield as a security guarantee or make it unnecessary if hostilities cease.
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