Will El Niño be declared before December 2026? | Manifold

Will El Niño be declared before December 2026?

1

Ṁ1kṀ500

Nov 30

87%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues an "El Niño Advisory" before 1 December 2026.

Resolves NO otherwise.

Background:
https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-prepare-el-nino

WMO: Prepare for El Niño

Geneva, Switzerland (WMO) - Fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

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