Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the following condition is met for any three-month running mean season during the El Niño event peaking in late 2026 or early 2027:
The official Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) reaches +2.70°C or higher (strictly exceeding the historical record of +2.69°C set during the 1982-1983 winter).
If the RONI value stays at or below its records (+2.69°C or lower), this market resolves to NO.
Data Sources for Verification:
If subsequent NOAA revisions modify the peak values of the 2026–2027 event, resolution will be determined by the official NOAA data available as of June 1, 2027.
Background
A historically powerful El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, with multiple forecast models projecting a "super" or "mega" El Niño. Historically, the strength of ENSO events has been measured by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which tracks sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region. Under this metric, the 2015–2016 winter holds the record at +2.6°C. However, to correct for background global ocean warming, the CPC transitioned in 2026 to the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) as its primary ENSO tracking tool. RONI subtracts the global tropical-mean sea surface temperature anomaly to isolate the true ENSO signal, and under this index, the 1982–1983 event holds the record at +2.69°C.
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1,000