
Star Trek or Star Wars?
5
500Ṁ1552063
Star Trek64%
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Update 2025-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Date: The market will be resolved on April 5, 2063.
Method: The current percentages will be frozen on that date and used to determine the outcome, effectively resolving the market as a poll.
Update 2025-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:
The percentages will now be frozen at a random time on April 5, 2063, rather than at a fixed moment.
This change is intended to help prevent last-minute manipulation.
The market will still resolve based on the percentages at the time of freezing, allowing traders to bet on their choices as planned.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.