"The Kidney One" is the nickname Scott Alexander used in his 2022 California ballot post to refer to Proposition 29, a statewide ballot measure placed by the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare West that was intended to add additional regulations for kidney dialysis clinics. It came after a similar measure in 2020 (Proposition 23) and another measure in 2018 (Proposition 8) to regulate prices at dialysis clinics. All three measures failed.

In its endorsement opposing the 2022 measure, the Los Angeles Times called it unnecessary and said that the union had "weaponized" the initiative process in its fight against major dialysis clinic operators.

Given these previous efforts, SEIU-UHW may try to place a similar measure on the ballot again. Will this happen in 2024?

This question resolves to YES if a measure similar to the three mentioned appears on the ballot in a statewide election in California in 2024. I will use my own judgment to determine what "similar" means, but the differences should not be greater than those among the three previous measures in terms of text, sponsor, and motivation.

I may provide liquidity subsidies but will not otherwise trade in this question.