OpenAI will launch an audio only smart home device in the next twelve months
53
146
1k
2025
36%
chance

Inspired by this tweet:

Resolves to YES if OpenAI releases an audio only smart device before May 14, 2025.

I will resolve to true if it’s either a device manufactured by OpenAI or if a third-party releases but it runs OpenAI software exclusively.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Does it count if the device is made by some third party company, and exclusively uses the open ai api, but open ai isn’t involved and doesn’t mention it. Or OpenAi needs to come out and be like here it is the official open ai smart home device

@eclair4151 Seems like that's covered by "I will resolve to true if it’s either a device manufactured by OpenAI or if a third-party releases but it runs OpenAI software exclusively."

@ChrisPrichard The last sentence makes it seem like any random company can make a smart speaker that happens to exclusively use the Open AI api, but has no input from open ai themselves

@eclair4151 Yeah - that's my read.

@ChrisPrichard - as written, you’re right: does not requirement explicit acknowledgement.

I’d be surprised if there’s not some sort of acknowledgement (à la works with Alexa) though.

If there is a third-party audio only smart home device, and it exclusively uses OpenAI APIs (so not like “pick your model of choice”), I will resolve to TRUE.

@ColinD So Apple integrating OpenAI APIs into HomePod resolves true?

@voodoo If there are no other companies models used, is my read.

@ChrisPrichard That’s a pretty crappy title then.

sold Ṁ37 YES

@voodoo Yeah, I was a bit surprised by that criteria!

@voodoo The HomePod case would only resolve to true if Apple says they’re moving it to be exclusively powered by OpenAI (and basically deprecating Siri and/or anything else built by Apple).

I am open to adding criteria that it has to be endorsed explicitly by OpenAI as well.

Basically the case I am saying does not count is if you basically have an OpenAI "skill" that integrates with Siri/Homepod or Alexa/Echo, that does not count to me. If you have an existing smart home device maker come out and say, "This is now exclusively runs through OpenAI" then that meets the description. And, I think that would be relatively huge news.

Apple saying, "hey we can now let you connect to OpenAI via Siri" would not count. Same for adding an official Alexa skill for OpenAI.

I did not say in the title the device also has to be manufactured by OpenAI because that's obviously a much, much lower probability event. I think the three clearest and most likely yes outcomes are:
1. OpenAI manufacturers and releases a smart home audio-only device under their brand.
2. OpenAI partners with a third-party to release an official smart home audio-only device under shared branding.
3. A third-party company launches a non-explicitly endorsed, but exclusively using OpenAI, audio only smart home (like a kickstarter or something). However, this is the case that if I add the "explicit endorsement" criteria would disqualify.

Does this help with clarifying?

@eclair4151 Yeah but that launched almost a year ago: https://www.zdnet.com/article/the-first-gpt-powered-smart-home-platform-is-here/

It’s in the “next” twelve months. Not in the past.

@ColinD Right sorry should have clarified just want to confirm that would have counted

@ColinD Oh it’s plenty clear. Just not from the title. A third party using OpenAI APIs ain’t OpenAI launching hardware, regardless of exclusivity. In the exclusive HomePod case absolutely nothing has been launched by OpenAI.

The title implies OpenAI getting into the hardware game, which they won’t.

It’s fairly well documented that Alexa et al are losing a shit ton of money. While it’s easy to argue that OpenAI has a more compelling product than Alexa etc, it’s not clear to me that it has a more profitable product.

OpenAI is not a hardware company. This would make zero sense. It makes way more sense for them to partner with Google, Amazon,etc who already have devices

More related questions