Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
Jun 16
is cringe
If someone less powerful behaved and talked like he does, they’d be widely considered mentally ill.
Overall, he does more good for humanity than bad
At least two of his children will choose to be known by a name other than their birth name
He was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple. (US baseball reference meaning he overestimates how much of his success is due to smarts not luck)
He is not smarter than Eliezer Yudkowsky
I am no more or less likely to consider buying/keeping a Tesla than I was before he acquired Twitter
It’s important to understand that he wields extra-governmental, geopolitical power.
Made Twitter worse than it would have been if he didn't acquire it
Sure Elon’s powerful, but so are other ultrawealthy individuals, it”s a systemic issue not a specific instance important on its own
He is an intellectual
He diverts resources from Tesla to his private companies but that won’t blow back on him
He diverts resources (his own and those of some employees) from Tesla to his private companies, this will blow back on him
It’s useful to understand him as a spiritual leader.
Tesla inset door handles and minimalist interiors are cool
He’s already accomplished so much, I’m willing to go on the assumption that his future efforts will benefit me personally
Is a Russian asset
Has done or will do more to transform rocketry, cars, electrical infrastructure than anyone else in last 100 years and may well do more areas of transformation even if unclear on social media and tunnelling yet.
In 100 years he will have more name recognition than Edison, Watt, and Ford
Is increasing x-risk

EDIT: Resolves to poll that I will post June 15th. Top 5 in poll resolve to 100%.

I reserve the right to leave answers out of the poll that are matters of fact, not open to debate, low quality etc. If I can’t N/A them I’ll bet them down and resolve them in my own favor.

ETA2: Options not Top 5 in poll resolve to NO.

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Will the poll be an approval poll or first past the post? Approval would work better given that five options are being chosen (and is just better in general), but Manifold polls only do FPtP. If you want to do an approval poll, you can do it with Google forms (make the question with checkboxes), or do a poll in the comments where people vote by liking comments corresponding to each option.

@PlasmaBallin Some more details would be great. idk what we're betting on.

@PlasmaBallin Thanks, I thought this over and FPTP isn’t really right. The comments of this though are already a rabbit warren. And Google Forms is non starter for me. I was born on the pro-Excel side of the great divide People Who Refuse To Learn Excel and People Who Think Google Sheets Is A Toy — I’m going to my grave without getting proficient in this Google Forms but thanks for making me aware of it. It could come up!

Some people have tried polls where one trader = one vote. That seems like decent option. It’s not super intuitive but it’s not too cumbersome to work. Or I could put a new poll and as you suggest ask for approval in the comments there. Downside of that is, if other discussions break out, the comments people are supposed to vote on would get swamped.

Still mulling this over but clearly it needs decision soon.

@ClubmasterTransparent one idea:

Pin a comment saying "poll - like if you think something is true"

Reply to it with each of the options in the market.

Resolve the 5 with the most likes to "yes" and the rest to no.

@Daniel_MC This is pretty good.

@ClubmasterTransparent I think you should use Daniel's method if you want approval voting. Translating positions to votes only works if it was specified that it would work that way from the beginning. Some people have bet on options not because they agree with them, but because they think other people will.

@ClubmasterTransparent have you figured out what you're going to do?

He is not smarter than Eliezer Yudkowsky

I will carry this to the poll if you make me. But in what universe, what planet, what neighborhood is this a question that sheds light.

@ClubmasterTransparent Umm, you can't just censor questions you don't like. I created it because I thought it was likely to resolve YES with 2 other questions. In what way does "Cybertruck is ugly on purpose" shed light on anything?

@patrik If it’s still in top 10 I’ll carry it to the poll. There’s a discussion downthread where I elaborate on my inability to understand it.

Also downthread I asked EY how he feels about that question, expecting either no response or something ironic. Instead he acted pretty thin-skinned! Must have caught him at a bad time.

As for Cybertruck, design is a big aspect of all Tesla vehicles, and for a lot of people, your vehicle says a lot about you. It’s part of your self-presentation.

I will add an option that is positive about Tesla design to balance it out.


Cybertruck in the wild, Costco parking lot

how am i showing a profit on this market? I traded brilliantly... under a bunch of assumptions about this market, all of which were wrong 😆

Seriously too low.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #51640be09387 NO

So to be clear, only the top 5 answers resolve YES, and all others resolve NO?

@PlasmaBallin Thanks, I didn’t realize how much unclarity I introduced. The top 5 answers from the poll, whatever happens there, resolve to 100%. It now appears that between 10 and some large number will carry to the poll.

For the avoidance of doubt. “Elon Musk Is Under 100 Feet Tall” is disqualified from the poll and will not be further entertained.

I originally thought the answers that got to the poll — I.e. the top 10 from here — would resolve to PROB but being as it looks like no one read my mind, does this cause a disastrophe?

@ClubmasterTransparent So what are the precise resolution criteria? Is it, "Top 10 options by probability at close go to a poll, top 5 poll options win, and the winning poll options resolve to YES, while all others resolve NO"?

bought Ṁ50 He is not smarter th... YES

@PlasmaBallin That's what I'm assuming.

@PlasmaBallin I was thinking of resolving the others to the poll results but looking back I see I never made that clear. Not sure I can do that now, if everyone expects them to resolve No.

@ClubmasterTransparent Probably just resolve them to NO, since that's what everyone expected

@PlasmaBallin Sounds right to me.

@ClubmasterTransparent I’ve been betting heavily on “top 5 resolve to 100% all others resolve to NO”! If there was a plan to resolve any other options to a % that should’ve been made clear in advance!

@benshindel that was dumb of you considering that others have already resolved to 95%.

@benshindel You’re fine. That plan was abandoned. I have edited the description.

we aim to please

@jim Reminder, the two options that resolved to PROB were added in the middle of a Saturday night in a coordinated attempt to “force” me to change the criteria, and dumb. Since I no longer had N/A power and betting them down and resolving them in my own favor was frowned on by a mod, I resolved them to PROB. I suspect alcohol was involved, since “forcing” me to do anything very rarely ends well.

@ClubmasterTransparent it was dumb mod interference that i will be angry about forever

@jim Can’t fight the Man.

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