Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?
Standard
243
Ṁ130k
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
YES
is cringe
Resolved
YES
Overall, he does more good for humanity than bad
Resolved
YES
Is increasing x-risk
Resolved
YES
It’s important to understand that he wields extra-governmental, geopolitical power.
Resolved
95%
His IQ is not above 550.
Resolved
95%
He is not an alien
Resolved
20%
If someone less powerful behaved and talked like he does, they’d be widely considered mentally ill.
Resolved
20%
He was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple. (US baseball reference meaning he overestimates how much of his success is due to smarts not luck)
Resolved
20%
At least two of his children will choose to be known by a name other than their birth name
Resolved
20%
He is not smarter than Eliezer Yudkowsky
Resolved
20%
Sure Elon’s powerful, but so are other ultrawealthy individuals, it”s a systemic issue not a specific instance important on its own
Resolved
NO
I am no more or less likely to consider buying/keeping a Tesla than I was before he acquired Twitter
Resolved
NO
It’s useful to understand him as a spiritual leader.
Resolved
NO
He is an intellectual
Resolved
NO
He diverts resources (his own and those of some employees) from Tesla to his private companies, this will blow back on him
Resolved
NO
He diverts resources from Tesla to his private companies but that won’t blow back on him
Resolved
NO
Made Twitter worse than it would have been if he didn't acquire it
Resolved
NO
Tesla inset door handles and minimalist interiors are cool
Resolved
NO
In 100 years he will have more name recognition than Edison, Watt, and Ford
Resolved
NO
Cybertruck is ugly on purpose

EDIT: Resolves to poll that I will post June 15th. Top 5 in poll resolve to 100%.

I reserve the right to leave answers out of the poll that are matters of fact, not open to debate, low quality etc. If I can’t N/A them I’ll bet them down and resolve them in my own favor.

ETA2: Options not Top 5 in poll resolve to NO.

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@jacksonpolack can the rest of the options be resolved NO as well?

At least two of his children will choose to be known by a name other than their birth name

@ClubmasterTransparent Ugh, I really should have considered that this had a resolution time that's not when these kids are in their fifties

Just checking @mods

"Options not Top 5 in poll resolve to NO"

Oh, right, my interpretation of the description was those resolve n/a but he clarified options not in the poll resolve no. That was a poor market design but i'll follow it

@ClubmasterTransparent are we going to resolve soon?

Poll closed 6 days ago now.

5 options tied for 5th place.

I think either we resolve those to 20% each or do another poll between those 5.

@mods lot of volume in this market

edit: yeah I think resolving them all to 20% is fine, anyone disagree?

Only 4 options in the poll got more than 1 vote.

5 were tied 5th with 1 vote.

There aren't a clear top five, because several tied for fifth place. Need clarification from OP

No disagreement from me on resolving them to 20% each.

I think that sounds reasonable

@ClubmasterTransparent poll going live today?

Get voting @traders !

Will the poll be an approval poll or first past the post? Approval would work better given that five options are being chosen (and is just better in general), but Manifold polls only do FPtP. If you want to do an approval poll, you can do it with Google forms (make the question with checkboxes), or do a poll in the comments where people vote by liking comments corresponding to each option.

@PlasmaBallin Some more details would be great. idk what we're betting on.

@PlasmaBallin Thanks, I thought this over and FPTP isn’t really right. The comments of this though are already a rabbit warren. And Google Forms is non starter for me. I was born on the pro-Excel side of the great divide People Who Refuse To Learn Excel and People Who Think Google Sheets Is A Toy — I’m going to my grave without getting proficient in this Google Forms but thanks for making me aware of it. It could come up!

Some people have tried polls where one trader = one vote. That seems like decent option. It’s not super intuitive but it’s not too cumbersome to work. Or I could put a new poll and as you suggest ask for approval in the comments there. Downside of that is, if other discussions break out, the comments people are supposed to vote on would get swamped.

Still mulling this over but clearly it needs decision soon.

@ClubmasterTransparent one idea:

Pin a comment saying "poll - like if you think something is true"

Reply to it with each of the options in the market.

Resolve the 5 with the most likes to "yes" and the rest to no.

@Daniel_MC This is pretty good.

@ClubmasterTransparent I think you should use Daniel's method if you want approval voting. Translating positions to votes only works if it was specified that it would work that way from the beginning. Some people have bet on options not because they agree with them, but because they think other people will.

@ClubmasterTransparent have you figured out what you're going to do?

He is not smarter than Eliezer Yudkowsky

I will carry this to the poll if you make me. But in what universe, what planet, what neighborhood is this a question that sheds light.

@ClubmasterTransparent Umm, you can't just censor questions you don't like. I created it because I thought it was likely to resolve YES with 2 other questions. In what way does "Cybertruck is ugly on purpose" shed light on anything?

@patrik If it’s still in top 10 I’ll carry it to the poll. There’s a discussion downthread where I elaborate on my inability to understand it.

Also downthread I asked EY how he feels about that question, expecting either no response or something ironic. Instead he acted pretty thin-skinned! Must have caught him at a bad time.

As for Cybertruck, design is a big aspect of all Tesla vehicles, and for a lot of people, your vehicle says a lot about you. It’s part of your self-presentation.

I will add an option that is positive about Tesla design to balance it out.

@ClubmasterTransparent

Cybertruck in the wild, Costco parking lot