If so, why is that bad? I like candy! Anyone here for UBI but against streak bonus? I'd like to hear that case made.
ETA: No one has made that case yet. I still like candy. Resolving soon.
ETA: Too bad no one gave me much reason to refine my view. I still like candy and I still consider streak bonus as Manifold's UBI.
Creating this market as spinoff of this one, where the option has become a distraction:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ54 | |
| 2 | Ṁ21 | |
| 3 | Ṁ12 |
People are also trading
@RemiRampin open for discussion but I'm leaning toward "in my sole discretion."
When I made the related linked market, someone added this as an option. It's unexpectedly popular but only tangential to that question. I tried to resolve that option only but looks like I would have to resolve them all at once. Now I am seeing if I can somehow move that bit out of that market to a different one.
@ClubmasterTransparent Then please apply appropriate labels (non-predictive), and possibly update the title to "Will I consider...". This makes it easier to identity markets that are not prediction markets in the feed.
I feel like the streak bonuses are about right - not so much that I felt awash in mana, but enough that I had something to bet with even if I kept betting daily for the first month, which is the habit Manifold wants to form in its users I expect.
Once you have a few thousand mana invested, the streak bonuses matter less, and what matters are the interest free loans. And I imagine at some point once I've got lots and lots of bets on the go, what will matter will be the profit on those bets as they resolve. I would say don't take the free mana away from new users, but you can take it away from those with lots of mana without affecting user behaviour.
Back of the napkin, if you have a couple thousand daily active users, you're talking $500 a day or so in streak bonuses. Assuming the mana exchange rate of 100 mana for $1 of charitable donation holds, which it doesn't have to long term. That... actually does seem significant on the scale of money Manifold has in the bank (say $175,000/year), But in practice actual expenses from giving away mana will top out at $120,000 of charitable donations (10,000/month) which are backed by outside funders, so... seems fine?
Anyway, my overall impression was "Manifold gives away mana like grapes and cucumbers to monkeys, in a considered attempt to operant condition us", not "Manifold gives away mana like candy".
i should have added 'like candy' https://manifold.markets/strutheo/after-24h-which-phrase-will-manifol
@strutheo please consider adding ",Manifold UBI". I'm wondering how many of the users who want ,Manifold to "stop giving away mana like candy" also support real-world UBI.
Personally I support both!