
Which nation will conduct a full scale nuclear test in 2024?
15
1.1kṀ2602Jan 1
20%
Russia
16%
North Korea
14%
China
9%
Israel
5%
USA
5%
Iran
4%
Other
4%
UK
4%
India
4%
Pakistan
4%
France
4%
South Africa
4%
South Korea
4%Other
2%
Saudi Arabia
Test must be assessed as “full scale” by CTBO or other national or international agency with the knowledge and capability to make such assessments.. A subcritical test or other partial test of components does not count. A failed full scale test,aka “a Dud”, will not satisfy the requirement.
Countries listed are: (a) known to have nuclear weapons, (b)have nuclear weapons capabilities under development, or (c) known to have had nuclear weapons development programs that have been shutdown.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
12% chance
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)
7% chance
Will an above-ground nuclear test take place in 2025?
8% chance
What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
14% chance
Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2024?