Which nation will conduct a full scale nuclear test in 2024?
15
140
1.1k
2025
20%
Russia
16%
North Korea
14%
China
9%
Israel
5%
USA
5%
Iran
4%
Other
4%
UK
4%
India
4%
Pakistan
4%
France
4%
South Africa
4%
South Korea
4%
Other
2%
Saudi Arabia

Test must be assessed as “full scale” by CTBO or other national or international agency with the knowledge and capability to make such assessments.. A subcritical test or other partial test of components does not count. A failed full scale test,aka “a Dud”, will not satisfy the requirement.

Countries listed are: (a) known to have nuclear weapons, (b)have nuclear weapons capabilities under development, or (c) known to have had nuclear weapons development programs that have been shutdown.

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@Stralor this should N/A before it misleads more people like me. The market is dependent, but the real situation might be that several countries do the test or none will.

Or it could be made into a question

"Conditional on at least one nuclear test being conducted in 2024, which country will do the test first?"

I think that is exactly the case where moderators should take markets under their wing.

(IMHO: Also dependent markets Have to be visually distinguishable from independent.)

@KongoLandwalker oof, I see your point. yeah, if I had real takeover powers I'd add a "none" option. as is, that must resolve to "other".

I think this is still salvageable however if it's treated as "which country will be first". objections?

bought Ṁ105 of China NO

@CivilizedGuy I'm assuming this will resolve to one of the "Other"s if no country has a full scale test?

@Calvin6b82 I reckon making an explicit None option would be better

How will this resolve if there are no tests in 2024?

bought Ṁ11 Israel NO

@JoshuaWilkes I am assuming they will all resolve as 'no' but it bothers me that @CivilizedGuy didn't answer.

@HarrisonNathan Unfortunately they can't because this is a dependent market.

It's also not obvious what happens if two different countries conduct tests.

Creator appears to have been inactive for two months.

Smells like NA!

sold Ṁ31 Israel NO

@JoshuaWilkes Ick. Thanks for clarifying.