Manifold has never made a profit, & is unlikely to anytime soon (https://manifold.markets/SG/will-manifold-achieve-breakeven-pro). Its userbase is in decline (https://manifold.markets/stats).
The Islamic Republic is facing an unprecedented wave of protests, in both scale & scope. Their currency is in freefall, their control is in freefall, & they have no real means to restore order—with nor without violence.
So, which goes under first? Manifold, or the rulers of Iran?
Resolves MANIFOLD when the site announces its closure—if it simply goes offline, well, no resolution will be possible.
Resolves AYATOLLAH if Iran achieves a new mode of government, or even if the people simply overthrow the current rulers & replace them with new ones in the same governmental framework.
No AI clarifications will be permitted. Anyone posting AI-generated comments or analysis, will be barred from commenting further.
1,000@Houston2025 The Ayatollah's death would have no impact on the form of government. He's not the first Ayatollah. You may wish to learn more about the structure of Iran's government before betting in the market. The criteria are very clear about what constitutes resolution for Iran.
@DanzoAlerantos Great question! Depends on the sale. If it's sold off for parts to e.g. an investment portfolio, with mass layoffs, that's "going under." If they find a buyer to continue & expand operations, maintaining 75% of current staff & leadership or more, then no that's not "going under."
@EspenJohannesen What makes you think they can secure enough investment to go four more years? They didn't raise at all this year & have stated no plans to do so. It's also very unclear to me how this declining project, would be able to state enough potential future value to secure further investment.
@vi Sorry, that's not correct. I have already explained this in the description. Please read it carefully before betting.
@vi The fake money is already useless :)
But still, no, there is a clear resolution situation in the event of site closure, depending on how the site closes.