[Riskless Mana] Will this claim get more than 30 traders if I put a manalink for 30*3 Mana in the comments?
34
488
670
resolved Jun 13
Resolved
YES

Number of traders is the number shown above graph.

I shall ask people to only claim their 3 mana if they trade this claim.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Looking for at least two other people to share a M252 investment. Anyone interested?

predicted YES
predicted YES

@ChristopherRandles count me curious.

Sorry the opportunity has gone. If curious, there was a sell order for 100M at 65% now withdrawn on https://manifold.markets/WinstonOswaldDrummond/will-the-largest-no-position-be-gre

One person taking it up would end up with largest position and have to try to sell out but if 3+ people shared it the person having their order filled would be largest position and have to sell out pushing the price higher. remaining 10% 90% orders would have to be shared by too many to be worth trying to do.

People now seeming very confident of <s>30</s>31 being reached. Perhaps they know of <s>3</s>number needed of accounts lined up to claim in last minute? Would accounts delay trading to last minute to try to help their trading when they haven't yet taken up a position? Perhaps wait until there are <s>29</s>30 then buy big or if there are still just 27 sell big in last few seconds. I guess that is possible

predicted YES

@ChristopherRandles I made a bounty on it so I expect people to take that

predicted YES

And it's a thing where team "Yes" can easily manipulate the numbers that team No can't do anything about

@ChristopherRandles You say "confident of 30 being reached" but the title says more than thirty? Could you please confirm what is the lowest displayed traders number that resolves this YES.

@NamesAreHard sorry yes, more than 30 means minimum of 31 for a yes judgement

sold Ṁ1,840 of YES

@ChristopherRandles resolves yes now?

bought Ṁ30 of NO

If anyone sees this comment before the market closes and then doesn't trade, I will give them M$20 if the market resolves NO. (Please like this comment, so I can see who actually saw it before the market closed.)

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@Gabrielle, you really want to do this? I'm bored at work today

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch Low risk high reward for me. 😃

(Also, to clarify my comment above, you have to be someone who has not already traded; you need to not count as one of the >30 traders)

predicted YES

@Gabrielle don't forget low percentage

ok ignore my like I have traded

bought Ṁ200 of YES

Damn, I was 5 seconds behind Marcus on 90 -> 96

bought Ṁ25 of YES

Please only claim this if you trade this market. A single mana trade will do and you can sell it again if you wish.

https://manifold.markets/link/QcuM8I3n

predicted YES

11 uses left 21 traders reached. Seems people are being honest and only claim the mana if they trade as requested. 9 needed in 10 hours - not yet clear.

sold Ṁ22 of YES

Sorry it has expired. If you have traded and not been able to claim your 3 mana let me know by replying here and I will set one up for you.

One of these has been claimed. Make that two provided and claimed

Now given out 28 in total so I only feel obliged to do 2 more.

Given out 30 so no more available sorry.