Democrat electoral college votes

This includes all the votes for Kamala Harris and any other Democrats get, right? Like, if some elector votes for Gavin Newsom, that is a Democrat getting a vote.

@ChristopherRandles Is the electoral college percent the popular vote margin in the tipping point state, or the % of votes won by democrats divided by total electoral votes?

@Nightsquared I was presuming it might be the average of the 7 swing states. Definitely needs to be clarified

@ChinmayTheMathGuy @Quinn
Democrat Electoral college % = (Democrat electoral college votes / Total electoral college votes (typically 538)) *100
Total for all states not just tipping point states.

Hope that is clear now

@ChristopherRandles then the most extreme options way underpriced because Dem popular vote is likely between 47% and 53% but the electoral % between 42% and 59%

@ChinmayTheMathGuy

@ChinmayTheMathGuy I'm happy to bet agaisnt you but I think you are missing a correlation in your analisis

@hidetzugu nah basically it's hard to analyze since most public election models (like 538) have way more uncertainty than I believe is appropriate.

But it's simple, for the over 5% option (I bet up and then sold), that roughly corresponds to 49% popular vote and having less than 44% of EC (236 or fewer), I would say roughly 1 in 5 chance

for the less than -2% option, 2020 Biden would be 51% - 57% which is negative 6%.

Essentially this market's mean is roughly 51% - 53% = -2%, so if Kamala gets at least 290 votes (~40% chance) that will be true