How will the "AGI before 2030" market update around Manifest?

Ṁ1kṀ1.7k

resolved Jun 21

100%9%

7% increase to 9% increase

>= 10% increase

72%

4% increase to 6% increase

11%

3% decrease to 3% increase

4% decrease to 6% decrease

7% decrease to 9% decrease

1.4%

>= 10% decrease

Manifest is bringing a bunch of AI folk and prediction market enthusiasts together. Will this cause an update in this market (https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030) ?

The difference between the percent in this market on the 6th of June until a week after Manifest (16th of June).

So if the percent was 35% on the 6th and the 45% on the 16th, then the change would be a 10% increase.

I'll put my cursor over the market graph to measure the prediction on that date. Unfortunately, I don't know exactly what time of day this will resolve to.

See also the auxiliary market about how many people will bet on this market: https://manifold.markets/ChrisLeong/how-many-people-will-bet-on-my-mark

Market context

Manifest

Manifest 2024

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Cursor over market is showing 38% on the 6th and 45-46% on the 16th which equates to an 7.5% increase.

As a sidenote, this scheme is a terrible way of resolving markets because Manifold can show multiple figures for the same date which I wasn't aware of before.

Additionally, due to averaging, this means that the result could have fallen outside of any of the listed ranges, when I had assumed that the answer had to be an integer.