Permanent market - will re-evaluate in Jan. 2034 or when definitive evidence emerges.
Priors (verificationgpt.org @ Jan 8th):
https://chat.openai.com/share/f158a990-4c59-4bdb-8037-89c5392e9e18
https://chat.openai.com/share/a192de27-4dda-4d31-9df6-dd57d30aeaaa
https://chat.openai.com/share/9261956a-1e93-42d3-98ce-cf3d223bb2e3
The posteriors for resolving the market will be based on asking the question to VerificationGPT periodically, similar to above, with veto rights assigned to human judgement.
1,000People are also trading
@RutgerDeMaeyer Actually building something like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive would resolve as yes.
@ChrisLengerich It kinda already happens in a lesser form due to gravity. This doesn’t count? Where is the line exactly?
Gravity bends/warps space, but not in a way that allows FTL anything. The Alcubierre field requires somehow warping space 'the other direction' as if you had a region of space with negative energy.