Permanent market - will re-evaluate in Jan. 2034 or when definitive evidence emerges.
Priors (verificationgpt.org @ Jan 8th):
https://chat.openai.com/share/f158a990-4c59-4bdb-8037-89c5392e9e18
https://chat.openai.com/share/a192de27-4dda-4d31-9df6-dd57d30aeaaa
https://chat.openai.com/share/9261956a-1e93-42d3-98ce-cf3d223bb2e3
The posteriors for resolving the market will be based on asking the question to VerificationGPT periodically, similar to above, with veto rights assigned to human judgement.
1,000
3.00@RutgerDeMaeyer Actually building something like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive would resolve as yes.
@ChrisLengerich It kinda already happens in a lesser form due to gravity. This doesn’t count? Where is the line exactly?
Gravity bends/warps space, but not in a way that allows FTL anything. The Alcubierre field requires somehow warping space 'the other direction' as if you had a region of space with negative energy.