Will Wikipedia credit gain-of-function research as possible cause for COVID by 2024?
11
22
210
2025
46%
chance

Resolves to YES
- if "gain-of-function" appears on COVID-19 - Wikipedia
in conjunction with "research"
- if "gain-of-function" appears on Investigations into the origin of COVID-19 - Wikipedia and "laboratory incident" is assessed as "possible" by an eminent organization
- gain-of-function research is not directly rejected in the context where it appears
- if contradictory views are presented by other parties are presented separately that is OK
- this holds true for more than a month cumulatively.

Otherwise resolves to NO on 1/1/2025

As "eminent organizations" are considered:
- the governments of the United States or China
- WHO
- The Lancet

If necessary I will review the edit history to determine the duration any statisfactory statement have been published and sum up the individual times each version of the page was up.
If Investigations into the origin of COVID-19 - Wikipedia gets renamed, split up or merge I will use my best judgement to determine which pages to count as successors.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

The "Origins" article is disappointing.