For what year will the average lifespan of babies born that year exceed 100 years ?
For what year will the average lifespan of babies born that year exceed 100 years ?
10
1kṀ720
3000
57%
2060-2100
19%
3000+ or never
9%
2050s
7%
2100-3000
3%
2024-2030
3%
2040s
1.2%
2023 or earlier

Average refers to the average age of death of all humans born that year on planet earth. The current average lifespan is ~72 worldwide and ~85 in Japan (highest national average).

https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy

Life Expectancy
When and why did the average age at which people die increase and how can we make further progress against early death?
Biotech
Aging
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1y

You express the object of the bet as "average age of death of all humans born that year on planet earth.", which I interpret literally as waiting until all people born in a certain year die and measuring their actual average lifespan.

But after stating that definition, you quote as example life expectancy values, and link a life expectancy graph. Life expectancy is defined as the expected age simulating a person being born now with age-specific mortality rates frozen at their current values throughout their life.

Which one is the actual object of the bet?

1y

@rotatingpaguro The actual object of the bet is your original interpretation. Granted, reported life expectancy is different. The link I quote was intended to be informative even if not directly answering addressing question.

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