Given Trump wins all 7 swing states, will he flip another "Likely Dem" state or district?

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Ṁ1021

resolved Nov 16

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This will resolve N/A if Trump does not win WI, MI, PA, NV, NC, GA, and AZ.

Likely Dem is any other state district that Biden won in 2020, so MN, NH, NM, ME (statewide), NE-2, VA are the most plausible that may flip.

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bought Ṁ20 YES

I estimate the odds of this as roughly

1 - P(Trump wins exactly 312 EVs) / P(Trump wins all 7 swing states)

Which is about 1 - 7%/20% = 65%

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