Given Trump wins all 7 swing states, will he flip another "Likely Dem" state or district?
Basic
3
Ṁ201
Nov 16
25%
chance

This will resolve N/A if Trump does not win WI, MI, PA, NV, NC, GA, and AZ.

Likely Dem is any other state district that Biden won in 2020, so MN, NH, NM, ME (statewide), NE-2, VA are the most plausible that may flip.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ20 YES

I estimate the odds of this as roughly

1 - P(Trump wins exactly 312 EVs) / P(Trump wins all 7 swing states)

Which is about 1 - 7%/20% = 65%

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules