I recently made a bunch of markets on which states will flip parties in the 2024 presidential election. I will resolve this market based on whichever state, district, or collection of states/districts is given the highest probability of flipping according to those markets, based on the average probability from midnight (Central Time) on Election Day to the time when the first state closes their polls. This is based on the scheduled time, so if any states leave their polls open for longer than expected due to some problems, that won't affect the average. I will use the exact probabilities, not the rounded ones.
These are the markets in question:
/JosephNoonan/will-a-republican-win-georgia-in-th
/JosephNoonan/will-a-republican-win-arizona-in-th
/JosephNoonan/will-a-republican-win-wisconsin-in
/JosephNoonan/will-a-republican-win-pennsylvania-804816d5e30f
/JosephNoonan/will-a-democrat-win-north-carolina-4e960bb4fc91
/JosephNoonan/will-a-republican-win-nevada-in-the
/JosephNoonan/will-a-republican-win-michigan-in-t
/JosephNoonan/will-a-democrat-win-florida-in-the
/JosephNoonan/will-a-democrat-win-texas-in-the-20
/JosephNoonan/will-a-republican-win-nebraskas-2nd
/JosephNoonan/will-a-republican-win-minnesota-in
/JosephNoonan/will-a-republican-win-new-hampshire-e71894fead6d
/JosephNoonan/will-a-democrat-win-maines-second-d
/JosephNoonan/will-a-democrat-win-ohio-in-the-202
/JosephNoonan/will-a-democrat-win-iowa-in-the-202
/JosephNoonan/will-a-republican-win-maine-in-the
/JosephNoonan/will-a-democrat-win-alaska-in-the-2
1,000
3.00