I made a (subjective) electoral college model with the goal of understanding betting markets:

I calibrated the state outcomes to (roughly) match betting markets.

and set the amount of correlation based on betting markets.

Using that methodology the most likely outcomes are

312 - 226 Trump (7%) - Trump wins all 7 swing states

319 - 219 Kamala (2%) - Kamala wins all 7 swing states

303 - 235 Kamala (2%) - Kamala wins all swing states minus 16 EVs (e.g. GA or NC or WI + NV)

306 - 232 Trump (2%) - Trump wins all swing states minus NV

297 - 241 Trump (2%) - Trump wins all swing states minus MI

302 - 236 Trump (2%) - Trump wins all swing states minus WI

296 - 242 Trump (2%) - Trump wins all swing states minus 16 EVs (e.g. GA or NC or WI + NV)

293 - 245 Trump (2%) - Trump wins all swing states minus PA

287 - 251 Trump (2%) - Trump wins all but 25 of swing state EVs (e.g. PA + NV or WI + MI)

292 - 246 Kamala (2%) - Kamala wins all but 27 of swing state EVs (e.g AZ + one of GA/NC)

Total: 24% by my model

(faithless electors ignored)